Asian Market Update: USD rallies as Fed completes QE3; RBNZ moves to more neutral stance; Brazil surprises with a rate hike
***Economic Data***
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK (RBNZ) LEAVES OFFICIAL CASH RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.50%, AS EXPECTED
- (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT RPDATA/RISMARK HOUSE PRICE INDEX: 1.2% (5th consecutive increase) V 0.1% PRIOR
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 IMPORT PRICE INDEX Q/Q: -0.8% (2nd consecutive decline) V +0.2%E; EXPORT PRICE INDEX Q/Q: -3.9% V -4.7%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: 0.0% V 3.3% PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN SEPT VEHICLE PRODUCTION Y/Y: -2.6% V -6.7% PRIOR
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA SEPT CYCLICAL LEADING INDEX CHANGE: 0.6 V 0.8 PRIOR
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA SEPT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.1% V 2.1%E ; Y/Y: 1.9% V 2.8%E
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA NOV BUSINESS SURVEY MANUFACTURING: 74 V 78 PRIOR; BUSINESS SURVEY NON-MANUFACTURING: 67 V 74 PRIOR
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.5%, S&P/ASX +0.4%, Kospi -0.7%, Shanghai Composite +0.4%, Hang Seng -0.2%, Dec S&P500 flat at 1,972,
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Dec gold -1.0% at $1,213, Dec crude oil -0.3% at $81.91/brl, Dec copper flat $3.08
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.2 tonnes to 742.4 tonnes; Lowest level since Oct 2008
- (CN) PBoC to drain CNY20B in 14-day repos (26th consecutive drain); Net zero position this week (3rd week of neutral position)
- (NZ) RBNZ sold net NZ$30M in Sept v sold net NZ$521M prior month
- (JP) Japan investors bought net ¥40.6B in foreign bonds v sold ¥1.18T in prior week; Foreign investors bought net ¥178.0B in Japan stocks v sold ¥414.2B in prior week
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- As widely anticipated, today's Fed decision marked the end of QE3 with the final $15B taper. Even though the Fed retained the "considerable time" language, the statement was deemed increasingly less dovish, as it noted further improvement in labor market conditions and diminishing underutilization of labor resources. Kocherlakota was the lone dissenter, calling to "commit to keeping the current target range for the federal funds rate at least until the one-to-two-year ahead has returned to 2%" due to sluggishness in the inflation outlook and the recent slide in market-based measures of expectations. The prior two hawkish dissenters Fisher and Plosser voted with the rest of the FOMC. USD was sharply higher (USD/JPY up 100pips above 109), yields rose (10yr at 3-week highs around 2.34%), while precious metals and equities sold off.
- RBNZ kept its rates on hold at 3.5% for the 2nd time but also removed its bias in favor of more tightening in light of the softer than anticipated inflation pressure. On exchange rate, RBNZ stated the NZD rate "has yet to adjust materially to the lower commodity prices.... Its current level remains unjustified and unsustainable." RBNZ also cited "subdued wage inflation, well-anchored inflation expectations, weak global inflation, falls in oil prices, and the high New Zealand dollar" for modest price trends. NZD/USD, already down sharply after the Fed, fell another 50pips after RBNZ to $0.7770 - down about 160pips overall on the day.
- Brazil central bank surprised with a 25bp hike of its SELIC rate against unanimous analyst expectations of another hold. The vote was 5-3 in favor of the hike, as board members noted "intensification of increases in relative prices with the balance of inflation risks becoming less favorable since last meeting."
- China Premier Li called for a boost in private consumption, the opening of financial services, and support of green industries. Separately, Moody's research noted that property sector sales are improving in Q4.
- Japan PM Abe was reported to have submitted an order for the cabinet to draft an extra budget for November. Separate press report speculated Tokyo may cut effective corporate tax rate by 2-3% for FY15, implying the recent improvement in retail and output data may have shifted the bias in favor of another sales tax increase.
- Australia housing data was mixed - Oct RpData price index rose 1.2% and resident economist called the market "relatively strong", while Sept HIA new home sales were flat on the month after a 3.3% rise in Aug. AUD/USD was also down about 130pips from pre-FOMC levels around $0.8770
***Equities***
US markets:
- LAKE: Provides update on business activity relating to Ebola Crisis; secured new orders from govt to fight against Ebola spread; +29.7% afterhours
- TCS: Said to be targeted by Apex Capital - financial press; +8.4% afterhours
- TTWO: Reports Q2 -$0.44 v -$0.48e, R$135.4M v $112Me, guides FY15 higher $1.05-1.30 v $1.06e, R$1.4-1.5B v $1.42Be; +5.5% afterhours
- SLCA: Reports Q3 $0.79 v $0.68e, R$241.3M v $232Me; +5.4% afterhours
- DWA: Reports Q3 $0.14 v $0.04e, R$180.9M v $168Me; +5.2% afterhours
- PPC: Reports Q3 $0.99 v $0.85e, R$2.27B v $2.37Be; +4.6% afterhours
- V: Reports Q4 $2.18 v $2.11e, R$3.23B v $3.19Be; Adds $5B (3.7% of market cap) to buyback plan; +4.2% afterhours
- JDSU: Reports Q1 $0.14 v $0.10e, R$433.6M v $416Me; +3.9% afterhours
- ACHC: To acquire CRC Health Group; financial terms not disclosed; +3.8% afterhours
- ESV: Reports Q3 $1.87 v $1.62e; R$1.26B v $1.23Be; +3.3% afterhours
- FFIV: Reports Q4 $1.57 v $1.48e, R$465.3M v $460Me; +2.9% afterhours
- LVLT: To enter SP500 index, replacing JBL; +2.9% afterhours
- CAR: Reports Q3 $1.91 v $1.80e, R$2.5B v $2.55Be; +2.9% afterhours
- CRUS: Reports Q2 $0.68 v $0.56e, R$210.2M v $194Me; +2.6% afterhours
- VPRT: Reports Q1 $0.86 v $0.57e, R$333.9M v $333Me; +2.6% afterhours
- MET: Reports Q3 $1.60 v $1.38e, R$17.9B v $17.5Be; +1.8% afterhours
- EQIX: Reports Q3 $0.81 v $0.88e, R$620.4M v $615Me, guides Q4 Rev $627-631M v $627Me; +1.3% afterhours
- LOCK: Reports Q3 $0.16 v $0.15e, R$123.0M v $120Me; +1.2% afterhours
- ABX: Reports Q3 $0.19 adj v $0.17e, R$2.60B v $2.48Be; +0.9% afterhours
- FLEX: Reports Q2 $0.26 v $0.24e, R$6.53B v $6.43Be; +0.7% afterhours
- BIDU: Reports Q3 $1.90 (ex compensation) v $1.62e, R$2.20B v $2.15Be; -1.0% afterhours
- BGC: Reports Q3 $0.30 v $0.39e, R$1.47B v $1.52Be; To Shed Asia ops; To search for replacement CEO; -1.4% afterhours
- TWTR: VP of engineering said to be in plans to leave company; another key engineer also plans to resign as engineering team is in conflict over Twitter's direction - CNBC's Fortt; -1.4% afterhours
- RRTS: Reports Q3 $0.40 v $0.38e, R$498.1M v $476Me, guides Q4 $0.33-0.37 v $0.38e, R$475-500M v $512Me; -2.3% afterhours
- KRFT: Reports Q3 $0.74 (incl items*) v $0.75e, R$4.40B v $4.52Be; -2.8% afterhours
- AKAM: Reports Q3 $0.62 v $0.57e, R$498M v $490Me, expect significant FX headwinds to create $6M neg impact vs Q3 - conf call; -3.5% afterhours
- TRLA: Reports Q3 -$0.08 v -$0.08e, R$67.1M v $69.5Me; -6.5% afterhours
- RGR: Reports Q3 $0.34 v $1.44 y/y, R$98.3M v $170.9M y/y; -9.9% afterhours
Notable movers by sector:
- Technology: Renesas Electronics Corp. 6723.JP +6.7% (H1 results); Yahoo! Japan Corp 4689.JP -6.1% (H1 results); Toshiba TEC Corp 6588.JP +6.1% (H1 results)
- Energy: Kansai Electric Power 9503.JP +3.2% (H1 results)
- Materials: Nippon Synthetic Chemical Industry 4201.JP -5.8% (H1 results); Toho Titanium 5727.JP +7.3% (raises FY14/15 Net guidance); Samsung Electronics 005930.KR +4.1% (final Q3 results)
- Industrials: NSK Ltd 6471.JP -3.7% (H1 Results); Mitsubishi Motors 7211.JP -5.3% (H1 results, cuts FY14/15 Rev guidance); Makita Corp 6586.JP +3.0% (raises H1 guidance); Misumi Group Inc 9962.JP +3.4% (H1 results, raises FY14/15 guidance); Daido Steel 5471.JP -3.7% (H1 results, lowers FY14/15 guidance); China Railway Group 601390.CN +9.7%, China Railway Construction Group 601186.CN +6.6% (momentum on CSR, CNR merger); BYD Corp 1211.HK -7.7% (Q3 results)
- Consumer discretionary: Capcom Co. Ltd. 9697.JP +4.9% (H1 results, reaffirms FY14/15 guidance); Keyence Corp 6861.JP +5.6% (H1 results)
- Energy: CNOOC 883.HK -4.8% (Q3 results)
- Financials: National Australia Bank +0.6% (FY14 results)