Asian Market Update: Yellen to be formally nominated on Wednesday; US govt gridlock still in place
***Observations/Insights*** - US cash equity markets ended on the lows on Tuesday as another round of remarks from Pres Obama and House Speaker Boehner was hardly indicative of any meaningful shift in their respective positions on the budget; Equity futures got an upward jolt in early electronic trade however after reports that ultra-dovish Janet Yellen will in fact be nominated to replace Fed Chairman Bernanke in 2014. - Alcoa informally kicked off the earnings season with a strong beat and upbeat commentary on China demand; Yum was a big disappointment however, as China SSS drop was much higher than expected. - Optimism from improved economic data from Australia overnight was dampened by disappointing forward-looking result from Westpac consumer confidence index, as it fell for the first time in 5 months. - BOJ minutes from early September meeting saw members agree that the virtuous cycle of production, income and spending is working steadily; One member warned of risk for large bond market volatility. - Shanghai Composite little changed despite fresh round of warnings over ballooning shadow banking activity; Analysts continue to expect Q3 GDP on tap for next week to recover from Q2 levels.
***Economic Data*** - (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 108.3 V 110.6 PRIOR; M/M: -2.1% V +4.7% PRIOR (largest decline in 5 months) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT QV HOUSE PRICES Y/Y: 8.4% V 8.5% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT CARD SPENDING RETAIL M/M: -0.8% V +0.3%E (first decline since March); TOTAL M/M: -0.4% V +0.4% PRIOR - (KR) SOUTH KOREA SEPT BANK LENDING TO HOUSEHOLD (KRW): 472.0T V 471.8T PRIOR - (KR) SOUTH KOREA AUG MONEY SUPPLY L M/M: +0.8% V +0.5% PRIOR; M2 M/M: -0.1% V +0.4% PRIOR - (UK) UK SEPT BRC SHOP PRICES INDEX Y/Y: -0.2% V -0.5% PRIOR - (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: +2.76M v +1.5Me (2nd consecutive build)
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (JP) BOJ offer to buy ¥110B in less than 1-yr JGB, ¥300B in 1-3yr JGB and ¥350B in 3-5 yr JGB - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$800M in 2.75% 2024 Bonds; avg yield: 4.0683%; bid-to-cover: 4.36x - (NZ) New Zealand issued NZ$2.5B in 2030 I/L Notes - SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,565 (lowest since Sept 18th) from 10,625 - update as of 10/7 - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall by 1.8 tonnes to 898.2.0 tonnes (lowest since Feb 2009)
- USD initially weaker on the Yellen nomination announcement, sending EUR/USD above $1.36 and USD/jpy below 96.90 before short-covering set in later in the day. Japanese yen is still widely offered across the board - USD/JPY up over 50pips above 97.40, EUR/JPY up 70pips above 132.10, AUD/JPY up 70pips to 91.90 session high.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China Premier Li Keqiang: Sees "strong momentum of steady growth" for China economy - press - (CN) China major cities property transaction volumes +17% y/y during National Day holiday - Soufun - (CN) China big four banks Sept new loans may be CNY276B; Overall new loans may be CNY840B v CNY711.3B m/m - Chinese press - (CN) China Anhui City tightens land transfer rules; Requires down payment equal to at least 50% land price - Chinese press - (CN) Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS): China shadow banking size may have already reached CNY20.5T at the end of 2012, nearly half of China's GDP - Chinese press - (CN) Analysts see China Q3 GDP rising to 7.8% from 7.5% in Q2 - Shanghai Daily
- (JP) Japan BOJ Dep Gov Nakaso: Japan economy expected to continue moderate recovery; Low chance of emerging nations suffering late 90s style financial crisis; High possibility of reaching 2% inflation target in FY14/15 - press conf - (JP) Japan's consumption tax increase to bring in ¥3T less than initially estimated - Nikkei News - (JP) Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI): Costs for Japan's 9 major utilities for fuel said to rise by ¥3.6T in FY13/14 without restart of nuclear power - Nikkei News
- (AU) Australia Treasurer Hockey: Downside risk to world outlook provides risks to Australia budget; Australia will need to appropriately manage risks - (KR) South Korea Ministry of Knowledge Economy: Q4 Business Survey Index (BSI) rose to 106 from 96 q/q - Korean press
- (IR) Iran said to be in plans to submit nuclear concessions; to propose dialing back nuclear program at discussions next week - financial press
- (US) President Obama: Reiterates government must reopen before negotiations begin, Congress cannot demand a ransom for doing its job - (US) US House Speaker Boehner: disappointed that Pres Obama and Democrats are unwilling to sit down and negotiate; Pres Obama wants an "unconditional surrender" - press conf
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +0.4%, S&P/ASX +0.1%, Kospi closed, Shanghai Composite -0.1%, Hang Seng -0.6%, Dec S&P500 +0.3% at 1,655, Dec gold -0.5% at $1,318, Nov crude oil -0.1% at $103.41/brl
US markets: - LRN: Guides FY13 Rev $905-925M v $987Me; -17.8% afterhours - YUM: Reports Q3 $0.85 (adj) v $0.93e, R$3.47B v $3.55Be; China Sept SSS -11% v -5.7%e; China Q4 SSS outlook no longer looking positive; -7.0% afterhours - KNX: Lowers Q3 guidance to $0.18-$0.20 v $0.23e (prior $0.22-0.24), Q4 guidance to $0.20-$0.23 v $0.24e (prior $0.22-0.25); -5.8% afterhours - CAS: Reports Q3 prelim -$0.28 to -$0.32 v -$0.04e, Rev $250-255M v $285Me; -5.4% afterhours - AAPL: Reports of iPad refresh event on Oct 22 (vs prior speculation of mid to late Oct); +0.6% afterhours - AA: Reports Q3 $0.11 (adj) v $0.06e, R$5.77B v $5.71Be; +3.0% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer discretionary: Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd 000625.CN +4.8% (Sept results); Dongfeng Motor 489.HK -3.8% (Sept results) - Industrials: Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd 175.HK -3.6% (block sale by Goldman Sachs); Trigiant Group Ltd 1300.HK -4.8% (share placement) - Materials: CSG Holding Co Ltd 000012.CN +3.1% (prelim Sept results); OceanaGold Corp OGC.AU -4.0% (announces acquisition); Newcrest Mining Ltd NCM.AU +1.1% (Q1 productions results; affirms FY14 gold production guidance) - Technology: Anhui Sun-Create Electronics Co Ltd 600990.CN +4.9%, China Spacesat Co Ltd 600118.CN +1.8% (China issues plan for satellite navigation industry); HTC Corp 2498.TW +2.4% (share repurchase); Wistron 3231.TW -1.6% (Q3 results) - Energy: China Longyuan Power Group 916.HK +5.3% (Sept power generation results); Shunfeng Photovoltaic International Ltd 1165.HK +16.4% (acquires stake in Suntech) - Utilities: Transurban TCL.AU +1.8% (Q1 results); TEPCO 9501.JP -1.1% (update to Fukushima leak) - Healthcare: Novogen Limited NRT.AU +6.1% (technology update) - Financials: Westpac Banking Corp WBC.AU +1.0% (bid for Lloyd's Australia assets); Mizuho Financial Group Inc 8411.JP -1.5% (criminal probe) - Telecom: Softbank 9984.JP -4.9% (analyst action)