Asian Mid-session Update: China GDP and Industrial Production hit 6-year lows
***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA Q1 GDP Q/Q: 1.3% V 1.4%E; Y/Y: 7.0% (6-year low) V 7.0%E
- (CN) CHINA MAR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 5.6% (6-year low) V 7.0%E; YTD: 6.4% V 6.9%E
- (CN) CHINA MAR YTD FIXED URBAN ASSETS Y/Y: 13.5% (multi-year low) V 13.9%E
- (CN) CHINA MAR RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 10.2% (multi-year low) V 10.9%E; YTD: 10.6% V 10.8%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA APR WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 96.2 V 99.5 PRIOR; M/M: -3.2% V -1.2% PRIOR (2nd consecutive decline)
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAR FOOD PRICES M/M: +0.1% V -0.7% PRIOR
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.7% V 3.7%E
- (SL) SRI LANKA CUTS REVERSE REPO RATE BY 50BPS TO 7.50% FROM 8.00% (NOT EXPECTED); CUTS REPURCHASE RATE BY 50BPS TO 6.00% FROM 6.50% (NOT EXPECTED)
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 flat, S&P/ASX -0.8%, Kospi +0.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.3%, Hang Seng +0.4%, Jun S&P500 -0.1% at 2,089
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Jun gold -0.1% at $1,191/oz, May crude oil +0.5% at $53.55/brl, May copper flat at $2.70/lb
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 1.8 tonnes to 736.1 tonnes
- (US) API Petroleum Inventories: Crude: +2.6M (5th straight build) v +3.5Me; Gasoline: -4.1M v 0Me; Distillate: -0.56M v +0.5Me
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥375B in 1-3yr JGBs, ¥375B in 3-5yr JGBs, ¥400B in 5-10yr JGBs
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$700M in 4.75% 2027 Bonds; avg yield: 2.3834%; bid-to-cover: 3.93x
***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Shanghai Composite is headed for its first loss in 3 trading sessions, dipping over 1% in the afternoon session. Disappointing round of March economic data and in-line with consensus slowdown in Q1 GDP along with the absence of alarm from the NBS bureau head are fuelling worries that the apparent slowdown will not necessarily yield a more proactive policy response.
- China Q1 GDP slowed to a 6-year low of 7% - on pace with 2015 target and in line with estimates. Services industry contributed 51.6% of GDP, up from 51.2% in 2014. Industrial production also slowed to a 6-year low of 5.6% and 6.4% YTD, with key component of power generation falling 3.7% y/y. Fixed investment YTD growth hit multi-year low of 13.5%, as property sales values and areas fell nearly 10%. Retail sales growth of 10.2% in March was also a multi-year low. China Stats Bureau head Sheng noted the growth slowdown was a positive for structural adjustment, and there is still plenty of room to increase infrastructure investment. Despite the slower retail spending, Sheng added consumption growth is solid, but acknowledged that decline in industrial output growth is dramatic. In regards to power output drop, Sheng said the decline is due to improved efficiency of electricity. Headed into the release, former PBoC adviser said massive monetary and fiscal stimulus would undermine growth and stability in the medium and long term, urging policymakers to aim for "sustainable" growth. A separate press report also noted there's still ample room to lower RRR setting for banks this quarter.
- AUD/USD saw the most dramatic reaction to soft China data, though perhaps not as sharp as feared, falling about 35pips to $0.7580. NZD/USD was little moved, trading in a 50pip range below $0.7540 heading into the dairy auction results later today. Of note down under, Moody's said Australia's Aaa sovereign rating is supported by low government debt and economic flexibility, with risks coming from declines in commodity prices and slowdown in China. In New Zealand, RBNZ Dep Gov Spencer said the new housing supply in Auckland is short of expectations, and property pressures are a threat to financial stability. In other FX majors, USD/JPY was bid higher above 119.70, with about a 30pip gain from the lows, and EUR/USD fell about 30pips to $1.0620.
***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- OTIV: Engages Houlihan Lokey to Explore Strategic Alternatives; +11.7% afterhours
- ALJ: Delek US to acquire 48% ownship interest in Alon USA for $572.4M; +11.5% afterhours
- INTC: Reports Q1 $0.41 v $0.40e, R$12.8B v $12.8Be; +3.2% afterhours
- CSX: Reports Q1 $0.45 v $0.45e, R$3.03B v $3.06Be; Raises quarterly dividend 13% to $0.18/shr (implied yield 2.2%) and announces new $2B (6.1% of market cap) share repurchase; +2.9% afterhours
- FXCM: Reports MAR metrics +29% m/m to $375B; +24% y/y; +2.3% afterhours
- LLTC: Reports Q3 $0.55 v $0.53e, R$372.0M v $371Me; +1.9% afterhours
- STWD: Announces public offering of 12M in common shares (5.4% of shares outstanding); -1.8% afterhours
Asia Notables (by sector):
- Consumer Discretionary: Aeon Co Ltd 8267.JP +1.8% (outlines capex plan)
- Financials: China Pacific Insurance Group 2601.HK +0.5% (Q1 premium income); China Overseas Land 688.HK +0.9% (Mar sales results)
- Materials: Western Areas WSA.AU +4.3% (Q3 production results)
- Energy: Woodside Petroleum WPL.AU +0.1% (Q1 results)
- Industrials: Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology 1157.HK -6.6% (Q1 guidance)