Asian Market Update: Australia trade deficit lower than expected, but China exports struggle; Toyota expected to boost guidance
***Observations/Insights*** - Tesla shares crash by over 10% in extended session as Q3 shipments of 5.5K and Q4 forecast for under 6K disappoint lofty valuation. - Shares of Toyota bouncing back in afternoon session ahead of the official release of Q2 numbers; Japan press speculates TM will raise its FY13/14 op profit guidance to ¥2.2T from ¥1.94T prior forecast. - Australia posts 3rd consecutive month of trade deficit; exports to China coming in flat on the month while iron ore exports rise just 1.5% m/m. - BOJ Oct 3rd meeting minutes see economic recovery on track; Expecting inflation to rise gradually; Board members concerned with risks related to uncertainty over US monetary policy. - China money market rates ease to 2-week lows.
***Economic Data*** - (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT TRADE BALANCE (A$): -284M V -500ME (3rd straight month of deficits) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q3 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS Q/Q: 1.6% V 1.4%E; PRIVATE WAGES EX-OVERTIME Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.5%E; PRIVATE WAGES INCL OVERTIME Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.5%E - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q3 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.2% V 6.2%E; EMPLOYMENT CHANGE Q/Q: 1.2% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 2.4% V 1.6%E; PARTICIPATION RATE: 68.6% V 68.0%E - (ID) INDONESIA Q3 GDP Q/Q: 3.0% V 3.0%E; Y/Y: 5.6% V 5.6%E - (ID) Indonesia Oct Consumer Confidence Index: 109.5 v 107.1 prior - (UK) UK OCT BRC SHOP PRICES INDEX Y/Y: -0.5% V +0.1%E (6th consecutive decline)
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.18T in 0.6% (0.8% prior) 10-yr notes; Avg yield: 0.605% v 0.682% prior; Bid to cover: 3.69x v 3.74x prior - (CN) China MOF sells 5-yr bonds, Avg yield 4.13% - (CN) Daily Shibor fixings: O/N: 3.6600% v 3.9147% prior (5th consecutive decline; 2-week low); 1-week: 3.8660% v 4.2320% prior (5th consecutive decline; 2-week low) - (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: +871K (lowest build in 6 weeks) v +2Me
- USD and JPY weakened in early China trade and SP500 futures tracked risk-on sentiment with an 8-handle jump to 1,765 on more signs of relief in China financial sector as well as press speculation of a strong Q2 print from Toyota. USD/JPY rose 30pips above 98.70, EUR/USD rose 50pips from the lows to 1.3520, NZD/USD traded up about 50pips from the lows toward 0.84, and AUD/USD was up 40 pips from the lows at 0.9525 after paring its initial jump following lower than expected trade deficit.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China 2013 CPI may come in below the 3.5% official target - Chinese press - (CN) Explosion has been reported in front of the office building of Shanxi Provincial Committee in Taiyuan City - Chinese press - (AU) Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) expects RBA to cut rates one more time due to persistent strength of AUD - (AU) Australia Treasurer Hockey: Mid-year budget update to show inherited problems - financial press
- (US) Fed's Williams (dove, non-voter): Employment growth has been good but not extremely strong; Wants to see improvement in consumer confidence before the taper
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +0.9%, S&P/ASX -0.1%, Kospi +0.2%, Shanghai Composite flat, Hang Seng +0.3%, Dec S&P500 +0.5% at 1,765, Dec gold +0.5% at $1,314, Dec crude oil +0.6% at $93.92./brl
US markets: - TSLA: Reports Q3 $0.12 v $0.12e, R$603M v $553Me; -12.3% afterhours - ANF: Reports prelim Q3 at high-end of $0.40-0.45 v $0.40e, R$1.033B v $1.07Be; Cuts FY13 guidance; -7.3% afterhours - VCLK: Reports Q3 $0.38 v $0.40e, R$134.1M v $167Me; -6.7% afterhours - URS: Reports Q3 $1.20 v $1.20e, R$2.74B v $2.95Be; -6.5% afterhours - JAZZ: Reports Q3 $1.78 v $1.66e, R$232.2M v $228Me; -2.8% afterhours - AGU: Reports Q3 $0.50 v $0.59e, R$2.87B v $2.94Be; -0.1% afterhours
- SSS: Reports FFO Q3 $1.01(adj) v $0.97e, R$70.9M v $68.7Me; +0.2% afterhours - FOSL: Reports Q3 $1.58 v $1.38e, R$810M v $773Me; +0.7% afterhours - WYNN: Announces $3.00 special cash dividend; Raises quarterly dividend by 25%; +1.1% afterhours - OPEN: Reports Q3 $0.50 v $0.42e, R$46.7M v $46.0Me; +3.4% afterhours - MSPD: MACOM Enters into definitive agreement to acquire Mindspeed Technologies for $5.05/share cash in $272M deal; +67.0% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer discretionary: Guangdong Chant Group Inc 002616.CN +4.1% (awarded contract); Samsonite 1910.HK +5.8% (Q3 results); Kakaku.com Inc 2371.JP -2.6% (Q3 results) - Industrials: Brother Industries 6448.JP -9.8% (H1 results); Mitsubishi Motors 7211.JP +1.8% (possible alliance with Nissan, Renault; provides business plan); Nissan Motor 7201.JP +3.5% (considers alliance) Toyota Motor Corp 7203.JP +1.1% (press speculates H1, FY expectations); CSR Corp 1766.HK +0.5% (may receive orders); Isuzu Motors 7202.JP +2.9% (press speculates H1 results); Inner Mongolia Hotision & Monsod Drought Resistance Greening Co Ltd 300355.CN +4.7% (may receive orders); CPI Yuanda 600292.CN +1.9%, Fujian Longking 600388.CN +3.0%, Beijing SPC Environmental 002573.CN +2.2% (China govt pollution plans) - Financials: Commonwealth Bank of Australia CBA.AU +1.3% (Q1 results) - Technology: Acer Inc 2353.TW -6.9% (Q3 results); Sharp Corp 6753.JP +2.5% (press speculates asset sale in China, Malaysia); Samsung Electronics 005930.KR -1.8% (CFO comments); Zhejiang East Crystal Electronic Co Ltd 002199.CN +10.0%, Sapphire Technology 123260.KR +2.7% (Apple, GTAT deal on sapphire materials)