Asian Market Update: PBoC injects funds into money markets but tension continues; RBA Gov Stevens talks down AUD
***Observations/Insights*** - Apple beat on the top and bottom line but shares fell about 1% in extended session, with Mac and iPad shipments missing estimates and margins turning slightly softer. Initial knee-jerk response was lower afterhours, before management alleviated concerns over margin pressure being the result of sequential increase in deferrals; Apple was also upbeat on iPad shipment growth. - Australia's ANZ bank reported full-year results; Net interest margins deteriorated 9bps, but cash profit was up marginally; ANZ also forecasted a 4-5% revenue growth in Q4, helping shares rise nearly 2%. - As speculated, the PBoC has resumed its open market operation activity due to rising money market rates, conducting its first liquidity injection in 2 weeks. Despite the initial rush in risk appetite, investors have presumably deemed the CNY13B operation to be too modest, as repo and Shibor rates hit fresh multi-week highs and Shanghai Composite quickly pared its opening gains. - Unable to temper its formal policy statement hawkishness for fear of stoking housing inflation, RBA Gov Stevens employed some verbal intervention at a local conference, forecasting AUD to be "materially lower in the future" given subdued business investment outlook and anticipated decline in terms of trade. - Japan retail sales increase at the fastest pace in 16 months as shoppers line up ahead of the rollout of the higher sales tax. JPY remains bid however, with all eyes now on the BOJ Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices report later this week.
***Economic Data*** - (JP) JAPAN SEPT RETAIL TRADE Y/Y: 3.1% V 1.8%E (16-month high); RETAIL SALES M/M: 1.8% V 0.5%E; LARGE RETAILERS' SALES: 0.7% V 0.7%E - (JP) JAPAN SEPT OVERALL HOUSEHOLD SPENDING Y/Y: 3.7% V 0.5%E (6-month high) - (JP) JAPAN SEPT JOB-TO-APPLICANT RATIO: 0.95 V 0.96E; JOBLESS RATE: 4.0% V 4.0%E - (KR) SOUTH KOREA SEPT CURRENT ACCOUNT: $6.57B V $5.68B PRIOR; GOODS BALANCE: $5.70B V $5.28B PRIOR
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (CN) PBoC to conduct CNY13B in 7-day reverse repos (first liquidity injection in two weeks) - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells 1.25% A$200M in 2022 indexed Bonds; avg yield: 1.3483%; bid-to-cover: 3.38x - update - JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.68T in 0.1% 2-yr notes, Avg Yield: 0.094% v 0.093% prior; bid to cover: 7.96x v 5.50x prior - SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,502 tonnes (2-week high) from 10,442 tonnes
- AUD is under outsized pressure following a downbeat set of comments from RBA Gov Stevens calling for a much lower exchange rate. AUD/USD hit 2-week lows around $0.9505, AUD/JPY also at 2-week lows below 92.70, while AUD/NZD reversed some of its recent strength to fall 40pips below NZ$1.15 level. NZD/USD also pressured by general modest risk-off sentiment, falling 0.3% below 0.8260, down 0.4%. - In other dollar majors, Sterling unexpectedly fell to 2-week lows below $1.61. EUR/USD and USD/JPY traded sideways in 25pip ranges around $1.3780 and ¥97.60 respectively.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (AU) RBA's Stevens: AUD likely to be materially lower in the future; high AUD not supported by costs, productivity; Terms of trade likely to fall - (NZ) According to one survey, economists are near-unanimous in expectation for the first RBNZ rate hike to take place in March of 2014 - NZ press
- (JP) BOJ expected to maintain its 2% inflation target within 2 years timeframe as part of the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices report expected on Oct 31st - Nikkei News - (JP) Japan Vice Fin Min Furusawa: Japan requires fiscal reform to keep market confidence - financial press - (JP) IMF dep director of Asia-Pacific Schiff: Japan needs steady growth path, not just stimulus
- (CN) China may loosen second child policy nationwide - Chinese press - (CN) China may grant higher crude imports quota; Teapot refineries may obtain quota to process imported crude - Chinese press - (CN) China Ministry of Housing may issue housing industrialization policy in 2014 - financial press
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) Official Jung: Oct exports in very good condition; South Korea to see $63B current account surplus in 2013 - (KR) South Korea Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Yoon held talks with planning officers of the country's top 30 conglomerates, calling on companies to boost investment and hiring - Korean press
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -0.1%, S&P/ASX -0.5%, Kospi flat, Shanghai Composite -1.0%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Dec S&P500 -0.1% at 1,757, Dec gold +0.3% at $1,356, Nov crude oil -0.3% at $98.43/brl
US markets: - X: Reports Q3 -$0.14 v -$0.43e, R$4.13B v $4.31Be; -5.2% afterhours - STX: Reports Q1 $1.29 v $1.31e, R$3.49B v $3.55Be; Raises quarterly dividend 13% from $0.38/shr to $0.43/shr; -4.8% afterhours - AAPL: Reports Q4 $8.26 v $7.89e, R$37.5B v $36.7Be; Exec: iPhone sales grew in all regions, especially in emerging markets; also remain strong in the US - conf call; -1.2% afterhours - HLF: Reports Q3 $1.32 v $1.14e, R$1.21B v $1.20Be; Raises FY13 EPS guidance; -1.0% afterhours - RVBD: Reports Q3 $0.26 v $0.23e, R$262M v $268Me; flat afterhours - CNO: Reports Q3 $0.33 v $0.34e, R$1.09B v $1.06Be; +1.2% afterhours - HIG: Reports Q3 $1.03 v $0.83e, R$2.85B v $2.78Be; +2.4% afterhours - KORS: To be added to S&P500 index after the close of trading on Friday, November 1; +3.8% afterhours - MAS: Reports Q3 $0.29 v $0.25e, R$2.20B v $2.10Be; +4.7% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer discretionary: Cosco Pacific Ltd 1199.HK +1.1% (Q3 results); Japan Airlines 9201.JP -1.0% (press speculation on H1 results) - Consumer Staples: Yamazaki Baking 2212.JP -2.9% (expansion plans) - Industrials: SITC International Holdings Co Ltd 1308.HK +8.6% (Q3 results); Kawasaki Heavy Industries 7012.JP -3.6% (H1 results), Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding 7003.JP -2.0% (H1 results), Komatsu Ltd 6301.JP -8.0% (H1 results; lowers FY13/14 guidance) - Materials: Anhui Conch Cement 914.HK +0.8% (Q3 results); Kuraray Co Ltd 3405.JP +4.2% (H1 results) - Financials: ANZ Bank ANZ.AU +1.9% (FY results); Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank 3618.HK +1.6% (Q3 results); China Everbright Bank Co 601818.CN +0.7% (Q3 results); Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd 600048.CN -0.7% (Q3 results); Gemdale Corp 600383.CN -1.0% (Q3 results); Bank of China 3988.HK +1.5%, AgBank 1288.HK +2.0%, ICBC 1398.HK +1.7%, China Construction Bank 939.HK +1.0%, Bank of Communication 3328.HK +1.3% (may issues preferred shares) - Technology: Hynix Semiconductor 000660.KR -1.7% (Q3 results); Kyocera Corp 6971.JP +0.9% (press speculation on H1 results) - Utilities: TEPCO 9501.JP +4.7% (press speculation on H1 results)