Asian Market Update: China inflation softer than expected but still at 8-month high; Fixed asset investment falls to 3-month lows
***Observations/Insights*** - Hundreds confirmed fatalities from a violent typhoon that ripped through the Philippines over the weekend, though officials worry the number could reach thousands; Early estimates suggest Philippine GDP could take about 1% hit. - China economic data are mixed - CPI is at a 8-month high, wholesale deflation accelerates for the first time in months, fixed asset investment at 3-month low, while industrial production much better than expected. Analysts suggesting the low inflation should effectively keep the PBoC at bay on further tightening, though markets will continue to zero in on the extent to which the central bank acts during the open market operations. Meanwhile, the Communist Party's 4-day plenum has entered its 3rd day on Monday without any significant updates on policy.
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA OCT CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) M/M: 0.1% V 0.8% PRIOR; Y/Y: 3.2% V 3.3%E (8-month high) - (CN) CHINA OCT PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Y/Y: -1.5% V -1.4%E - (CN) CHINA OCT FIXED URBAN ASSETS YTD Y/Y: 20.1% V 20.2%E (3-month low) - (CN) CHINA OCT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 10.3% V 10.0%E - (CN) CHINA OCT RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 13.3% V 13.4%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT HOME LOANS M/M: 4.4% V 3.5%E (6-month high); INVESTMENT LENDING: 5.2% V 0.6% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND OCT RETAIL CARD SPENDING M/M: 1.8% V 1.3%E; TOTAL M/M: 1.1% V -0.4% PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN OCT BANKRUPTCIES Y/Y: -7.4% V -11.9% PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN OCT ECO WATCHER CURRENT SURVEY: 51.8 V 52.8 PRIOR; OUTLOOK SURVEY: 54.5 V 54.2 PRIOR (2nd consecutive increase) - (JP) JAPAN OCT BANK LENDING EX-TRUSTS Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.3% PRIOR; BANK LENDING INCL TRUSTS Y/Y: 2.0% V 2.0% PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN SEPT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: ¥587.3B V ¥400.8BE; ADJ CURRENT ACCOUNT: -¥125.2B (first deficit in 7 months) V -¥97.0BE; TRADE BALANCE BOP BASIS: -¥874.8B V -¥853.9BE - (MA) MALAYSIA SEPT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 1.0% V 2.0%E; MANUFACTURING SALES VALUE Y/Y: 1.5% V 5.5% PRIOR - (SL) SRI LANKA LEAVES REVERSE REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 8.50% (EXPECTED); LEAVES REPURCHASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 6.50% (EXPECTED)
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥250B in 1-3yr JGB, ¥350B in 3-5yr JGB, and ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB - (KR) South Korea sells 5-yr govt Bonds; avg yield 3.235% - USD/INR: INR currency (Rupee) weaker in early trade around INR63; weakest level for INR since Sept 18th
- USD majors relatively flat as the greenback consolidated its sharp gains following a much stronger than expected non-farm payrolls on Friday. USD/JPY retreated back below the 99 yen handle, EUR/USD traded in a 20-pip range around 1.3350, and AUD/USD was likewise thin around 0.9480. NZD - the only counterpart to the US dollar faced with an inevitable start of reduction of easy policy - bounced about 0.5% or just over 40pips above 0.8280.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (PH) Over 300 dead, 2,000 missing and 800K people displaced in Philippines in the wake of Super Typhoon Haiyan - (PH) Philippines Fin Min Purisima: Main area affected by typhoon accounts for approx 12.5% of GDP, 20% of population; Typhoon expected to cost the economy 0.5-1.0% of GDP - CNBC interview - (PH) Philippines Central Bank Dep Gov Guinigundo: Philippines will be able to manage 6-7% 2013 GDP growth target
- (CN) Shanghai new home sales +8.16% w/w at 406.6K sqm; Avg new home price -4.38% w/w at CNY24.4K/sqm - Uwin - (CN) JPMorgan: China may announce 2014 GDP target of around 7.0%, down from 7.5% for 2013 - (CN) According to analysts, prices for iron ore in China will continue to fall in Q4 amid weak demand - Shanghai Daily - (CN) China may raise water pricing nationwide - Chinese press - (CN) China should push forward property tax nationwide in 2015 - Chinese press
- (KR) Analysts are unanimous in expectation for Bank of Korea (BOK) to hold rates at 2.50% in Nov for the 6th consecutive month - Yonhap
- (NZ) New Zealand Fin Min English: Reiterates New Zealand budget on track for surplus for FY14/15; High NZD poses headwinds for economy; 2014-2015 budget surplus to be small
- (GR) Greece lawmakers said to have rejected a govt no-confidence motion that was brought about by opposition leader Tsipras - financial press - (DE) Germany SPD Party's deputy leader Nahles: Continue to demand a modest increase on the wealthy as part of any coalition with CDU/CSU - German press - Former US Fed Chairman Greenspan: Euro can only succeed if EU countries agree to a political union - German press - (EU) ECB's Coeure (France): ECB can cut interest rates again if necessary and can provide the banking system with liquidity
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:00 GMT): - Nikkei225 +1.0%, S&P/ASX -0.5%, Kospi -0.3%, Shanghai Composite -0.2%, Hang Seng +0.1%, Dec S&P500 -0.1% at 1,763, Dec gold +0.2% at $1,287, Dec crude oil +0.1% at $94.72/brl
US markets: - BAC: DOJ asks court to order BoA to pay $864M for losses incurred by the govt after buying thousands of mortgages from Countrywide - press - BA: Japan Airlines BA787 Dreamliner reported battery issues on Helsinki-Tokyo flight on Friday - FT - LMT: South Korea Defense Ministry may pick Company's F-35 as next jet fighter - Korean press
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer discretionary: DeNA Co Ltd 2432.JP -3.1% (H1 results); Yamada Denki 9831.JP +7.8% (H1 results); Hakuhodo DY Holdings 2433.JP +2.7% (H1 results); Round One Corporation 4680.JP +15.9% (H1 results); Oenon Holdings Inc 2533.JP -4.4% (H1 results); Nexon Co Ltd 3659.JP -22.4% (9-months results); Olympus Corp 7733.JP -3.3% (H1 results); FAW Car Co Ltd 000800.CN +2.8% (To build plant in Algeria); Lotte Shopping Co Ltd 023530.KR -3.5% (Q3 results) - Consumer staples: Mengniu Dairy 2319.HK +2.6%, Yashili International Holdings Ltd 1230.HK +13.5% (Mengniu to sell shares of Yashili) - Industrials: Orica Ltd ORI.AU +10.7% (FY13 results; enters into natural gas agreement) - Materials: Fuji Seal International Inc 7864.JP -3.7% (H1 results); Chongqing Iron & Steel Co Ltd 601005.CN +10.2% (to acquire asset) - Financials: Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd 8801.JP +1.6% (H1 results); Suruga Bank 8358.JP +6.3% (H1 results) - Technology: Avex Group Holdings Inc 7860.JP +4.9% (H1 results) - Energy: Inpex Corp 1605.JP -1.5% (H1 results) - Utilities: Yokogawa Electric Corp 6841.JP +6.7% (H1 results); Phoenix Electric 6927.JP +28.8% (H1 results)