Asian Market Update: Yen at fresh 5-year lows as China, Korea express concern on currency
***Observations/Insights*** - ECB Pres Draghi interviewed in German press over the weekend, reiterating the absence of evidence of deflation would keep the ECB on the sidelines with no further cuts to is main interest rate. - Japanese press speculating Toyota's FY results would top estimates, helped by weaker yen rates than the ¥92-97 range conservatively estimated when the company last offered FY13/14 guidance. - FT interview with IMF's Lipton noting Japan GDP would likely be upgraded for the coming year; Lipton saw the first arrow of Abenomics - monetary policy - delivering results in 2013, but also calling for the start of fiscal and structural changes as intended in the remaining "arrows". - China NDRC joins South Korea amid growing concern that weak Yen unfairly benefits Japanese exporters at the expense of other regional economies. Separately, China naval ships briefly enter Japan's territorial waters around the disputed islands, marking the first reported intrusion since the controversial Yasukuni shrine visit by PM Abe last week. Analysts speculate whether the rising political tensions reverberate through more vocal opposition to Japan's aggressive expansionary monetary policy. - Australia's Port Hedland closes iron loading operations ahead of the arrival of cyclone Christine.
***Economic Data*** - (KR) SOUTH KOREA NOV CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: $6.03B V $9.51B PRIOR; GOODS BALANCE: $6.18B V $7.03B PRIOR - (KR) SOUTH KOREA NOV INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.0% V -0.5%E; Y/Y: -1.3% V -0.8%E - (KR) SOUTH KOREA NOV CYCLICAL LEADING INDEX CHANGE Y/Y: 0.2% V 0.4% PRIOR - (UK) UK DEC HOMETRACK HOUSING SURVEY M/M: 0.5% V 0.5% PRIOR; Y/Y: 4.4% V 3.8% PRIOR; 2013 home price gains of 4.4% follows decline of -0.3% in 2012.
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥250B in 1-3yr JGBs, ¥250B in 3-5yr JGBs, and ¥140B in floating-rate JGBs - (CN) Daily Shibor fixings: O/N: 3.2050% v 3.5130% prior (5th consecutive decline); 1-week: 4.8410% v 5.0670% prior (5th consecutive decline) - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1024 v 6.1050 prior setting (record high setting for Yuan) - SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 9,958 tonnes (lowest since 9,905 on July 1st) from 10,009 tonnes - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 3.0 tonnes to 801.2 tonnes (lowest since Jan 2009)
- USD majors tracked in narrow ranges amid thin holiday trade with little deviation from recent trends of relatively weaker JPY and AUD / stronger EUR and USD. USD/JPY hit fresh 5-year highs, reaching as far 105.40, EUR/USD traded up toward 1.3770 on Draghi comments before pulling back to 1.3740, AUD/USD fell over 30pips to session lows below 0.8840, while NZD/USD reversed initial gains above 0.8160 to briefly fall below 0.8120. In yen crosses, EUR/JPY was up about 50pips from Friday close, briefly testing 145 handle. GBP/JPY backed away from 173.80 - also up about 50pips from prior session at its high point.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): need to closely monitor effects on China and South Korea exports from weaken Yen - (CN) China Commerce Min (MOFCOM) Gao Hucheng: reiterates 2013 retail sales likely +13% y/y to reach CNY23.8T; Imports and exports may exceed record $4T, +7% y/y - (CN) China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT): China has prominent overcapacity problems - Chinese press - (CN) China Premier Li Keqiang: to maintain appropriate liquidity level in 2014 - Chinese press - (CN) China govt to evaluate the performance of SOEs in 2014 and "severely deal" with underperforming companies - Xinhua - (JP) Japan Business Federation (Keidanren) agree to raise wages (1st time in six years) - Japanese press - (JP) Okinawa governor approves relocation of US military base - financial press - (JP) Japan PM Abe: Will consider economic data for Q3 of 2014 before deciding on whether to continue with higher consumption tax - Japan press - (JP) 3 Chinese coast guard ships temporarily entered Japan's territorial waters around the disputed Senkaku islands on Sunday - financial press - (JP) IMF's Lipton: IMF will probably upgrade its growth forecast for Japan - FT interview - (AU) Australia's Pilbara region shutters loading operations on Sunday ahead of the arrival of Cyclone Christine on Monday - financial press - (IN) India Fin Min Chidambaram: Lowers FY14 current-account deficit (CAD) forecast further to below $50B - press - (KR) South Korea Ministry of Knowledge Economy: Nov industrial electricity sales rose 4.2% y/y to 22.3B kwh - Korean press - (KR) South Korea Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries: Container cargo handling at South Korean seaports in Nov rose 1.2% y/y to 113.7M tons - Korean press - (KR) South Korea Trade Min Yoon: Weakness in yen may add to difficulties for South Korea exporters - financial press - (KR) South Korea Dep Fin Min: South Korea concerned about yen's rapid depreciation against won - financial press
**MENA/Europe** - (EU) ECB's Draghi: see no signs of deflation, and no urgent need for further cut in the main interest rate - Spiegel interview - (GR) Greece Fin Min Stournaras: Reiterates view that Greece is preparing return to the bond markets in H2 of 2014 - Greek press - (FR) Top court in France approves a proposal for companies to pay 75% tax on annual salaries above €1M - press - (SY) Syria has yet to remove chemical arms from key sites as deadline approaches - UN joint mission statement - (RU) Suicide bomber struck railway station in Volgograd, Russia; at least 15 fatalities reported - financial press
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +0.5%, S&P/ASX +0.5%, Kospi +0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%, Hang Seng +0.1%, Mar S&P500 flat at 1,836, Feb gold -0.4% at $1,209, Feb crude oil -0.1% at $100.26/brl
US markets: - CROX: Reaffirms Q4 at lower end of prior guided -$0.23 to -$0.20 v -$0.21e, Rev $220-225M v $222Me on Oct 30th; Confirms $200M investment from Blackstone in convertible preferred shares
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer discretionary: Fujian Furi Electronics 600203.CN +0.7% (denies speculation on wearable product); Maruha Nichiro Holdings 1334.JP -2.7% (product recall); Changfeng Axle China Co 1039.HK +10.6% (acquires stake in JV) - Industrials: Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine 042660.KR -0.6% (rig sinks by accident); Toyota Motor Corp 7203.JP +0.5% (speculation on FY13/14 results); Hyundai Motor Co 005380.KR +2.4% (to increase overseas production); Tengda Construction Group 600512.CN +1.3% (awarded contract); Xiamen International Airport 600897.CN +6.8%, Xiamen ITG Group 600755.CN +9.7%, Xiamen Port Development +7.8% (Xiamen submits FTZ application); Austal Ltd ASB.AU +1.7% (awarded contract); Mazda Motor Corp 7261.JP -0.2% (cuts target for China unit) - Financials: Central China Real Estate Ltd 832.HK +1.2% (rating action) - Materials: Forge Group FGE.AU +57.1% (awarded contract) - Healthcare: Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical 002422.CN +2.5% (receives approval from GMP) - Technology: Shenzhen Coship Electronics 002052.CN +3.3% (internet TV project); Samsung Electronics 005930.KR -2.1% (speculation on Q4 results); Sony Corp 6758.JP +2.3% (reverses decision to sell battery unit)