Asian Market Update: Japan CPI ex food/energy at break-even after 5-years of deflation; Samsung Electronics reports in-line Q3
***Observations/Insights*** - China money market pressure remains on display going into the weekend as Shibor rates continue to hit multi-month highs, leading to sources within the PBoC to hint that the central bank may resume liquidity injections if rates move too high; Markets may still interpret this as endorsing gradual build-up of expectations for reduced PBoC accommodation. - Japan CPI data marked prime economic events of the session. National CPI was above expectations and core-CPI saw its first sequential decline in 6 months. More notably, the core-core CPI (ex food/energy) was flat, the first non-negative print since 2008, leading to some celebratory rhetoric from cabinet officials about Japan's exit from deflation. - New Zealand officials have been increasingly vocal about tempering NZD strength. After concerns expressed by Fin Min English earlier this week, RBNZ Gov Wheeler hinted the apparent success of LVR caps in dealing with housing inflation could delay the start of rate hikes, sending NZD to multi-week lows across the board. - Samsung Electronics reported final Q3 results largely in line with expectations after preliminary results dampened sentiment earlier this month. Chip and Telecom units were particularly strong on y/y basis while TV/Home segment lagged. Samsung expects DRAM shipments to remain robust despite the recent hints of weakness in PC space.
***Economic Data*** - (JP) JAPAN OCT TOKYO CPI Y/Y: 0.6% V 0.5%E; TOKYO CPI EX-FRESH FOOD Y/Y: 0.3% V 0.3%E - (JP) JAPAN SEPT NATIONAL CPI Y/Y: 1.1% V 0.9%E; NATIONAL CPI EX-FRESH FOOD Y/Y: 0.7% V 0.7%E (first sequential decline in 6 months) - (JP) JAPAN SEPT CORPORATE SERVICE PRICE INDEX Y/Y: 0.7% V 0.8%E - (KR) SOUTH KOREA Q3 PRELIM GDP Q/Q: 1.1% V 0.8%E; Y/Y: 3.3% V 3.1%E - (PH) PHILIPPINES AUG TRADE BALANCE: -$961M V -$533ME
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥250B in 1-3yr JGB, ¥350B in 3-5yr JGB and ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB as well as ¥1.5T T-bills outright - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$800M in 2.75% 2024 Bonds; avg yield: 4.0137%; bid-to-cover: 2.88x - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.8 tons to 876.5 tonnes - (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Assets Week ending Oct 23rd: $3.795T (record high) v $3.770T prior; M1 y/y change: 9.0% v 9.0% w/w; M2 y/y change: 6.6% v 6.6% w/w
- (CN) PBOC begins loan prime rate system, sets 1-yr prime lending rate at 5.71% - (CN) Daily Shibor fixings: O/N: 4.3670% v 4.0880% prior (3rd consecutive rise, highest since June 30th); 1-week: 4.8910% v 4.6800% prior (7th consecutive rise, highest since July 30th)
- NZD/USD seeing outsized losses among the major, falling over 50pip below $0.83 handle at the lows. NZD/JPY falls below the ¥81 handle on relative kiwi decline for a 2-week low, while AUD/NZD is up 40pips above 1.1550 - a 6-week high. Kiwi weakness largely attributed to comments from RBNZ Gov Wheeler who hinted that LVR limits may delay the need to raise interest rates. - Other dollar majors largely rangebound. After some initial USD strength, AUD/USD is now down just 20pips around $0.96, EUR/USD is in a 20pip range around $1.38 and USD/JPY is consolidating overnight decline in ¥97.20-40 band.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - Fitch lowers GDP outlook for World growth; 2013 GDP seen at 2.3% v 2.4% prior; 2014 seen at 2.9% v 3.1% prior; 2015 world growth outlook unchanged at 3.2%
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Will take time for Japan to exit deflation; Japan CPI is rising as a result of BOJ economic policy. - (JP) Japan Econ Min Amari: welcomes union demand for base pay rise; Inflation should be driven by rising wages.
- (CN) Yuan rise is not perceived as too fast; PBoC may intervene fx market if appreciation accelerates - financial press - (CN) China Premier Li Keqiang: China is determined to improve air quality in five years - talk at China Trade Unions - (CN) China may further expand value-added tax (VAT) levy in 2014 - Chinese press - (CN) PBoC would resume liquidity injections if rates move too high - financial press citing PBoC source
- (AU) Moody's: Sector outlook for Australia states and territories remains Negative as it has been since 2010, due to wide deficits and increasing debt levels. - (NZ) RBNZ Gov Wheeler: Raising rates may risk boosting the NZD, housing market is overheated in some areas of the country, seeing some indications that lending limits are working; LVR limits may delay the need to raise interest rates
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) Official Jung: South Korea exports level to US and China is not bad
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -1.2%, S&P/ASX +0.4%, Kospi -1.0%, Shanghai Composite -1.0%, Hang Seng -0.4%, Dec S&P500 flat at 1,748, Dec gold -0.5% at $1,343, Nov crude oil -0.1% at $97.47/brl
US markets: - TWTR: Prices 70M share IPO in range of $17-20shr - filing
- ESRX: Reports Q3 $1.08 v $1.08e, R$25.9B v $25.1Be; raises FY13 EPS guidance but cuts cash flow guidance; -4.3% afterhours - KLAC: Reports Q1 $0.68 v $0.66e, R$658M v $668Me; Guides Q2 $0.67-0.87 v $0.92e, R$670-730M v - $736Me - conf call; -3.5% afterhours - CERN: Reports Q3 $0.35 v $0.35e, R$727.8M v $756Me; -3.2% afterhours - EMN: Reports Q3 $1.68 (adj) v $1.64e, R$2.34B v $2.32Be, cuts FY13 guidance; -2.0% afterhours - WDC: Reports Q1 $2.12 v $2.04e, R$3.80B v $3.78Be; -1.3% afterhours - WYNN: Reports Q3 $1.84 v $1.64e, R$1.39B v $1.36Be; -1.1% afterhours
- CLF: Reports Q3 $0.66 v $0.71e, R$1.55B v $1.49Be; +1.6% afterhours - CA: Reports Q2 $0.86 v $0.72e, R$1.14B v $1.10Be; raises outlook; +2.0% afterhours - MSFT: Reports Q1 $0.62 v $0.54e, R$18.53B v $17.8Be; +5.3% afterhours - OUTR: Reports Q3 $0.97 v $0.88e, R$587.4M v $579Me; authorizes additional $150M share buyback (8.8% of market cap); +7.3% afterhours - AMZN: Reports Q3 -$0.09 v -$0.09e, R$17.09B v $16.8Be; +8.3% afterhours - ZNGA: Reports Q3 -$0.02 v -$0.04e, R$202.6M v $148Me; +12.9% afterhours - DECK: Reports Q3 $0.95 (unclear if comparable) v $0.72e, R$386.7M v $387Me; +13.8% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer discretionary: L'Occitane 973.HK -6.5% (Q3 results) - Consumer staples: Warrnambool Cheese & Butter WCB.AU +3.6% (receives upsized offer) - Industrials: Mitsubishi Motors 7211.JP +2.3% (provides FY guidance); Fuji Electric Holding 6504.JP -1.4% (H1 results); Hitachi Construction Machinery 6305.JP +1.0% (speculation on earnings); Kia Motors Corporation 000270.KR +0.5% (Q3 results); Great Wall Motor 601633.CN -8.3% 2333.HK -5.5% (Q3 results); Fujian Longking Co Ltd 600388.CN +4.2%, Kelin Environmental Protection Equipment Inc 002499.CN +6.0% (China Premier calls to increase air condition) - Materials: Whitehaven Coal WHC.AU +2.6% (Quarterly production results); Hyundai Steel Co 004020.KR -1.6% (Q3 results) - Financials: Devine Ltd DVN.AU -26.5% (provides FY guidance); Mizuho Financial Group Inc 8411.JP -1.5% (execs to face punishment for criminal loans) - Technology: Canon Inc 7751.JP -1.0% (Q3 results); Samsung Electronics 005930.KR -1.0% (Q3 results); High Tech Computer Corp 2498.TW +3.8% (denies speculation to scale down production) - Energy: Dart Energy DTE.AU +3.6% (sells license); Sinovel Wind Group Co Ltd 601558.CN -3.5% (Q3 results) - Telecom: NTT DoCoMo Inc 9437.JP -1.9% (speculation on Q2 results); China Unicom Ltd 600050.CN -1.2% 762.HK +0.5% (Q3 results)