Asian Market Update: China HSBC flash PMI hits 7-month highs; China money rates remain elevated as PBoC again refrains from liquidity injection
***Observations/Insights*** - China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI hit 7-month highs of 50.9; new orders component hit 6-month highs and output index a 7-month high; HSBC chief economist cited broad-based modest improvements in China economy, with growth recovery becoming more entrenched heading into Q4 and anticipating continued upward momentum in the coming months. - China money markets continued to tighten as 1-week Shibor rose for 6th consecutive session to a 3-month high and 1-yr swap rate hitting a 6-week high; PBoC once again passed on injecting liquidity into the system - for the week, China central bank drained CNY58B, 6th week out of the last 8 in terms of liquidity outflows in China. - Australia draft of legislation intended to repeal the mining (MRRT) tax - one of the coalition govt's campaign pledges - was said to add A$13B to the budget; Separately, RBA Dep Gov Lowe forecasted further decline in mining investment relative to GDP while welcoming the weaker AUD. - In New Zealand terms of trade marked its 3rd consecutive month of deficit in September, albeit a much smaller one than expected; Exports outpaced expectations by over 10% while imports missed slightly. - In regional earnings, Canon kicks off the Japan reporting period with much of the focus on compact camera sales outlook after a cut in the past two quarters. Out of South Korea, LG, Posco, and Hyundai Motors are on tap to report quarterly results.
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA OCT HSBC/MARKIT FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.9 V 50.4E (7-month high) - (JP) Japan investors bought ¥1.4T in foreign bonds last week (2nd straight week of net purchases) vs bought net ¥380.7B in prior week; Foreign Investors bought ¥297.8B in Japan stocks v bought net ¥143.6B in prior week - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT TRADE BALANCE (NZ$): -199M V -680ME (3rd month of deficit); Exports: 3.83B v 3.46Be; Imports: 4.03B v 4.13Be - (KR) SOUTH KOREA Q3 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) Y/Y: -32.9 V -3.3% PRIOR - (VN) Vietnam Oct Consumer Price Index (CPI) M/M: 0.5% v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: 5.9% v 6.5%e (lowest since Aug 2012)
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (CN) PBoC won't conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session for 3rd consecutive day; Drains net CNY58B this week v drained CNY44.5B last week - (CN) China 1-yr swap rate rises 7bps to 4.12% (highest since Sept 13th); 7-day repo rate opened at 5%, up about 95bps vs prior close - (CN) China Statistics Bureau: China pork price -0.4% in mid Oct - SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,442 (first rise since Sept 24th) tonnes from 10,367 tonnes
- USD/CNY: (CN) China yuan opens trade at 6.0830 vs 6.0835 prior (record high for 2nd straight day) - AUD and NZD traded off their overnight lows despite further tension in China money markets, hitting session highs against after the release of China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI above $0.9660 and $0.8440 respectively. NZD/USD saw an added modest boost after the release of New Zealand trade data. - USD/JPY rangebound in ¥97.20-50 area ahead of tomorrow's closely monitored inflation data from Japan. - Precious metals up slightly; Dec gold up $5 around 1,336 and silver up nearly 1% above $22.70/oz.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China State Information Center chief economist Fan Jianping: sees Q4 GDP approx 7.6% vs 7.8% in Q3; FY13 GDP remains around 7.6-7.7% - financial press - (CN) China Center for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE)'s Zheng Xinli: China could miss goal of doubling per capita income by 2020 v 2010 - (CN) Beijing issues new policy for self-occupied homes; To increase home supply substantially by year end - press
- (JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda: BOJ to continue to carefully monitor US monetary policy - addressing parliament - (JP) Japan PM Abe: Plans to use additional tax revenue, not new debt, to finance stimulus spending - (JP) Japan Business Federation (Keidanren) expresses support for 'Abenomics'; first assessment in over four years - Kyodo News
- (AU) Australia RBA Dep Gov Lowe: Mining investment may decline 3% relative to GDP; Weaker AUD since April is welcome development; Decline in mining investment should be manageable. - (AU) Australia Treasurer Hockey: Reaffirms RBA's 2-3% inflation target. - (AU) Australia govt announces draft to repeal Mining Tax (MRRT) on July 1st 2014; will add approx A$13B to budget bottom line.
- (ID) Moody's: Indonesia's outlook is stable, with external pressures manageable.
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -0.4%, S&P/ASX +0.3%, Kospi flat, Shanghai Composite -0.4%, Hang Seng -0.9%, Dec S&P500 +0.2% at 1,746, Dec gold +0.1% at $1,335, Nov crude oil +0.7% at $97.49/brl
US earnings: - SYMC: Reports Q2 $0.50 adj v $0.44e, R$1.64B v $1.68Be; -12.4% afterhours - FIO: Reports Q1 -$0.07 v -$0.11e, R$86.3M v $85.2Me; -10.7% afterhours - AKAM: Reports Q3 $0.50 v $0.46e, R$396M v $388Me; approves $750M buyback program (8.1% of market cap); Guides Q4 $0.49-0.53 v $0.51e, R$412-430M v $425Me - conf call; -6.8% afterhours - LSI: Reports Q3 $0.17 v $0.16e, R$607M v $612Me; -4.0% afterhours - ETFC: Reports Q3 $0.16 v $0.16e, R$416.8M v $422Me; Enters into agreement to sell its market making G1 Execution Services to affiliate of Susquehanna International Group for $75M; -3.8% afterhours - T: Reports Q3 $0.66 v $0.65e, R$32.2B v $32.2Be; -0.1% afterhours - V: Increases quarterly dividend by 21% to $0.40/shr from $0.33/shr; +0.3% afterhours - LRCX: Reports Q1 $0.81 v $0.71e, R$1.02B v $1.01Be; +1.7% afterhours - FFIV: Reports Q4 $1.26 v $1.19e, R$395.3M v $385Me; +2.3% afterhours - TEX: Reports Q3 $0.62 (ex items) v $0.59e, R$1.81B v $1.94Be - filing; +2.7% afterhours - CTXS: Reports Q3 $0.70 v $0.69e, R$713M v $715Me; +4.6% afterhours - TSCO: Reports Q3 $0.46 v $0.41e, R$1.21B v $1.19Be; +5.9% afterhours - EQIX: Reports Q3 $0.72 v $0.57e, R$540.5M v $542Me; +7.0% afterhours
Notable Asia movers by sector: - Consumer discretionary: LG Household & Health Care Ltd 051900.KR +4.9% (Q3 results); China Star Entertainment Ltd 326.HK +6.2% (to sell hotel in Macau); Pacific Brands PBG.AU -3.7% (provides operating updates); Suzhou Gold Mantis Construction Decoration Co Ltd 002081.CN -2.3% (speculation of business ties with political official) - Industrials: Hitachi Ltd 6501.JP +7.6% (H1 guidance); Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co Ltd 000157.CN -2.7% 1157.HK -2.4% (speculation on accounting fraud); JGC Corp 1963.JP +1.1% (positive chairman comments); Mazda 7261.JP +1.4% (press reports on op profit outlook) - Materials: Newcrest Mining NCM.AU -1.2% (Continue to believe gold outlook positive), Medusa Mining Ltd MML.AU -7.4% (provides operating updates); Xinjiang Tianye Co Ltd 600075.CN -2.3% (Q3 results); Toll Holdings TOL.AU +3.5% (provides operating updates) - Financials: China Merchants Property Dev Co Ltd 000024.CN -0.1% (Q3 results); WesFarmers Limited WES.AU -0.3% (Q1 results) - Energy: Yang Quan Coal Industry Group Co Ltd 600348.CN -1.6% (Q3 results); APA Group APA.AU +1.4% (provides FY guidance); Taiyuan Coal Gasification Co Ltd 000968.CN -2.0% (Q3 results); Shanxi Xishan Coal & Electricity Power Co Ltd 000983.CN -1.5% (Q3 results); S-Oil Corp 010950.KR -2.6% (Q3 results); Eve Energy Co Ltd 300014.CN +6.1% (Q3 results); Henan Dayou Energy Co Ltd 600403.CN -6.2% (under investigation) - Healthcare: Imugene IMU.AU +20.0% (announces acquisition)