Asian Mid-session Update: Markets in profit-taking mode with an eye on uncertainty in Europe
***Economic Data***
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA NOV BOP CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: $11.4B (record surplus) V $8.8B PRIOR; BOP GOODS BALANCE: $10.1B V $8.5B PRIOR
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA NOV INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 1.3% V 0.9%E ; Y/Y: -3.4% (biggest decline since Jan) V -2.3%E
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA NOV CYCLICAL LEADING INDEX CHANGE: -0.1 V 0.2 PRIOR
***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -0.8%, S&P/ASX -0.5%, Kospi -0.7%, Shanghai Composite -0.4%, Hang Seng -0.8%, Mar S&P500 +0.1% at 2,088
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold +0.5% at $1,187, Feb crude oil flat at $53.61/brl, Mar Copper +0.7% at $2.84/lb
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,250 tonnes from 10,268 tonnes priors (lowest since Aug 19th)
- (CN) PBoC won't conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session (10th consecutive halt)
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥450B in 1-3yr JGBs, ¥450B in 3-5yr JGBs, ¥400B in 5-10yr JGBs
- (NZ) RBNZ bought net NZ$3M in Nov vs sold net NZ$1M in Oct
- (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets for week ending Dec 24th: $4.50T v $4.50T prior; Reserve Bank Credit: $4.47T v $4.46T prior; M1 y/y change: 9.5% v 9.6% w/w; M2 y/y change: 5.8% v 5.8% w/w
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- Thin holiday trading conditions persist in the absence of meaningful regional economic or corporate developments. Korean current account and industrial output figures - the only data points for the session - were mixed, with record high CA surplus and a higher than expected y/y decline in production. China HSBC final manufacturing PMI for December is on tap for tomorrow's session.
- Speculation regarding further PBoC easing measures continues despite the more minor measures announced in recent days. China International Capital Corporation (CICC) anticipates as many as 4 RRR and 2 interest rate cuts next year in spite of weaker Yuan working to curb China's disinflationary forces. CNY has hit new 6-month lows in today's session, as USD/CNY fell through CNY6.2370. In the property space, a Mizuho report citing data from China Real Estate Index System (CREIS) forecasted a strong start to 2015 as mortgage rates decline, just as State Council Development Research Center official warned over risks of a property bubble burst on tepid demand.
- USD/JPY was at the lows entering the afternoon session, down about 30pips from late US highs near 120.40. Japan's LDP-lead ruling coalition announced it would aim to cut effective corp tax to below 30% over the next several years, approving FY15/16 tax reform that will also cut effective corp tax rate to 32.1% from 34.6%. The national corporate tax rate would be reduced to 23.9% from 25.5% from April.
- After some turbulence in Greece overnight that confirmed January snap elections, the focus once again shifts to Russia, particularly as it hit the first contraction in monthly GDP in 5 years and WTI oil fell to new multi-year lows below $53/brl. An opportunity for the public to express discontent will present itself with today's sentencing of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny, which has been pushed forward from last month. Social media accounts and warnings from Navalny's lawyers suggest several thousand protesters will march against the trial accusing Navalny of corruption.
***Equities***
US markets:
- ARCP: Corvex discloses 7.1% stake; have discussed getting board representation - 13D filing; +5.7% afterhours
- JST: Terminates going private transaction; -4.9% afterhours
- CVEO: Guides initial FY15 EBITDA $135-160M, Rev $540-600M v $850Me; Suspends quarterly dividend; -28.1% afterhours
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Beijing Xiangeqing 002306.CN -5.9% (Chairman investigated); Toray Industries 3402.JP +3.5% (to supply to BMW); Adastria Holdings 2685.JP +13.7% (9-month results)
- Financials: Guoyuan Securities 000728.CN +3.9% (raises cap for margin trading business)
- Materials: Anhui Conch Cement 600585.CN +10.0%, Wuhu Conch Profiles and Science 000619.CN +10.0% (parent company plans listing of entire group); Shandong Chenming Paper 000488.CN +3.3% (issues preferred shares)