Asian Market Update: US equity futures slump amid continued Washington stalemate; China trade data disappoints while CPI rises above expectations
***Observations/Insights*** - Less than 100 hours to go to the possibility of the first ever US default and still no progress in Washington. Talks between the White House and the House of Reps fell apart on Saturday after the President elected to push for a more long-term extension on the debt ceiling, dreading another political confrontation during the holiday shopping season. The focus moved the Senate, where a test vote for a $1T extension beyond the 2014 mid-term election did not receive the necessary 60 votes to move forward on the debating the legislation. Despite the setbacks in both houses over the weekend, Congressional leaders on both sides remained optimistic that a deal would be struck in the coming days, even though US equity markets are likely to be skeptical - S&P500 futures opened down 0.7%. - China trade data released over the weekend surprisingly disappointing - terms of trade at 6 month lows and exports registering first decline in 3 months. Susequent comments from Customs official noting the data suggests "trend of low yet stable growth", but also looking to ease concerns indicating exports are expected to stabilise in the next 2-3 months. - China September CPI inflation was hotter than expected, rising above 3% for a 7-month high. Food component especially high, up 6.1% v 4.7% prior, while non-food is comparable to prior month at 1.6%. Sept PPI is in deflation territory for 19th consecutive month. - Singapore Q3 advanced GDP fell less than expected and prior quarters were revised higher; Singapore central bank (MAS) maintained its policy of modest, gradual appreciation of SGD with no change to slope and center, briefly boosting SGD. - Japan and Hong Kong markets closed for holiday.
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA SEPT TRADE BALANCE: $15.2B V $26.3BE (6-month low); Exports Y/Y: -0.3% v 5.5%e (first fall in 3 months); Imports Y/Y: +7.4% v 7.0%e - (CN) CHINA SEPT CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) M/M: 0.8% V 0.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: 3.1% V 2.8%E (7-month high) - (CN) CHINA SEPT PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Y/Y: -1.3% V -1.4%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG CREDIT CARD BALANCES: A$48.9B V A$49.2B PRIOR; CREDIT CARD PURCHASES: A$21.8B V A$23.0B PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG HOME LOANS M/M: -3.9% V -2.5%E (first decline in 7 months and biggest decline in early 2011); INVESTMENT LENDING: 0.0% V 2.9% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND REINZ SEPT HOUSE PRICE INDEX: 3,778 V 3,746 PRIOR: M/M: +0.8% v 2.1% PRIOR; HOUSE SALES Y/Y: 19.0% V 8.5% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT PERFORMANCE SERVICES INDEX: 55.6 V 53.3 PRIOR - (SG) SINGAPORE Q3 ADVANCED GDP Q/Q: -1.0% V -4.0%E; Y/Y: 5.1% V 3.8%E
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1406 v 6.1458 prior setting (record high setting for Yuan) - (SG) Singapore Central Bank (MAS) maintains policy of modest, gradual appreciation of SGD with no change to slope, center - (KR) South Korea sells 5-yr govt Bonds; avg yield 3.135% - USD/KRW: (KR) South Korea Central Bank (BOK) signs a 3-yr currency swap with UAE for up to $5.4B - financial press - SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,505 (lowest since Sept 18th) from 10,565 - update as of 10/11 - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall by 5.4tonnes to 891.0 tonnes (lowest since Feb 2009) - update as of Oct 11th
- USD is modestly lower on the heels of the logjam in Washington, falling across the board against the majors with the exception of the Aussie dollar which is notably shaken by the disappointing China trade data. AUD/USD opened down by over 30pips at $0.9430 before regaining some ground toward $0.9450. EUR and GBP are up about 0.2% against the greenback, rising over 20 and 30pips above $1.3560 and $1.5980 respectively. USD/JPY and USD/CHF down about 0.25% or about 30pips, falling below ¥98.30 and CHF0.91 handle. Spot gold opened up over $5 to trade above $1,278/oz before retreating to unchanged levels around $1,272.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China National Energy Administration (NEA): China Sept power consumption rises to 444.8B kwh, +10.4% y/y - (CN) Former World Bank chief economist Justin Lin: China 2013 GDP likely to maintain 7.5-8% without hard landing - financial press - (CN) China Customs official: Trade for the 9-month period suggests "trend of low yet stable growth" - press - (AU) Bill Shorten elected as Australia's new Labor Party leader - (KR) Private think tank Korea Economic Research Institute (KERI): Sees 2014 GDP at 3.4% vs 3.9% official govt forecast - Korean press
- (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: Expects new govt to be finalized by mid-November; SPD has insisted on new €8.50/hr minimum wage agreement as a condition for a coalition govt - financial press - (IE) Ireland PM Kenny: Ireland is on track to exit its international bail-out program in December - press - (EU) ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg): ECB to request that large banks introduce an additional equity capital buffer when it conducts its asset quality review of the euro zone's largest banks in 2014 - German press - (PT) Portugal Fin Min Albuquerque: May try to tap an existing debt security as early as this year - press - (GR) Greece govt has proposed that international lenders allow it to roll over €4.4B in outstanding bonds to help cover the funding shortfall in 2014 - Greek press
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 closed, S&P/ASX -0.4%, Kospi -0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.4%, Hang Seng closed, Dec S&P500 -0.7% at 1,686, Dec gold +0.2% at $1,270, Nov crude oil -0.1% at $101.85/brl
US markets: - AAPL: May be preparing for a cheaper model of iMac in 2014 - tech blog citing KGI Securities analyst - COST: Said to have recalled some chicken products in California due to Salmonella - financial press - SBUX: CEO: Sees strong momentum in China markets - Nikkei News interview
Notable movers by sector (**Note: Japan, Hong Kong market closed): - Consumer discretionary: Suning Appliance Co Ltd 002024.CN +4.2% (approved to sell online mutual funds) - Industrials: China Railway Construction Corp Ltd 601186.CN +7.4% (awarded contract); CSR Corp 601766.CN +10.0%, CNR Co Ltd 601299.CN +10.0%, China Railway Group 601390.CN +8.0%, Jinxi Axle Co Ltd 600495.CN +10.0%, Baotou Beifang Chuangye Co Ltd 600967.CN +7.6%, Gem-Year Industrial Co Ltd 601002.CN +10.0% (China-Thailand discussion of high-speed rail); Guilin Guanglu Measuring Instrument Co Ltd 002175.CN +10.0% (acquisition) - Materials: China Minmetals Rare Earth Co Ltd 000831.CN -3.8%, Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare Earth 600111 -1.6% (China Minmetals provides YTD guidance); Shanghai Material Trading Co Ltd 600822.CN -9.0% (regulating warnings on accounting fraud); OZ Minerals O