Asian Market Update: Brazil raises SELIC rate by 50bps, BOK stands pat as expected; Australia unemployment falls as more leave the labor force
***Observations/Insights*** - Signs of thaw in budget stalemate help break a string of consecutive losses in US equities; Obama said to have held more talks with lawmakers from both parties at the White House, while House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan spoke of ending the stalemate without ACA attachment to the budget; US equity futures are up 7 handles above 1,655 and USD is higher across the board on tentative signs of progress. - Brazil Central Bank raises SELIC target by50bps as expected; Decision unanimous, said to ensure slower inflation in 2014. - Bank of Korea leaves rates on hold at 2.50% as expected; Maintains 2013 GDP target at 2.8% but lowers 2014 projections by 0.2pts to 3.8%; BOK Gov Kim noting inflation would remain low for time being and negative output gap for economy will narrow. - Australia employment data mixed - net change at 3-month highs and unemployment rate falls to 5.6%, but look inside the numbers reveals a 7-year low in participation rate; Press speculating Australia is a strong quarterly inflation data print away from RBA turning more hawkish. - Japan machine orders at 3-month high as govt raises assessment on the sector; 30-yr JGB auction seeing fairly strong demand.
***Economic Data*** - (BR) BRAZIL CENTRAL BANK (COPOM) RAISES SELIC TARGET RATE BY 50BPS TO 9.50%, AS EXPECTED - (KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) LEAVES 7-DAY REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 2.50% (AS EXPECTED); FIFTH STRAIGHT PAUSE - (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: 9.1K (3-month high) V 15.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.6% V 5.8%E; PARTICIPATION RATE: 64.9% V 65.0%E (matches 7-year low) - (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATION: 2.0% V 1.5% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT BUSINESS NZ MANUFACTURING PMI: 54.3 V 57.1 PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN AUG MACHINE ORDERS M/M: 5.4% V 2.5%E (3-month high); Y/Y: 10.3% V 8.5%E - (JP) JAPAN AUG TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX M/M: 0.7% V 0.4%E (3-month high) - (JP) JAPAN SEPT TOKYO AVERAGE OFFICE VACANCIES: 7.9 V 8.2 PRIOR - (JP) Japan investors sold ¥2.22T in foreign bonds last week (record amount; first net sale in four weeks) vs bought net ¥672.1B in prior week; Foreign Investors sold ¥27.1B in Japan stocks (1st net sale in five weeks) v bought net ¥341.4B in prior week - (JP) JAPAN SEPT BANK LENDING EX-TRUSTS Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.3% PRIOR (rises for 24th straight month); BANK LENDING INCL TRUSTS Y/Y: 2.0% V 2.0% PRIOR - (PH) PHILIPPINES AUG EXPORTS: $4.6B V $4.8B PRIOR; Y/Y: 20.2% V 20.0%E
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥546.3B in 1.8% (1.8% prior) 30-yr notes; Avg yield: 1.630% v 1.803% prior; Bid to cover: 4.07x v 3.87x prior - (JP) BoJ to buy ¥150B in corporate bonds on Oct 17th - (CN) PBoC to inject CNY48B in 14-day reverse repos today; Injects net CNY33B this week v injected CNY150.1B prior - (NZ) New Zealand sells NZ$200M in 2015 bonds, avg yield 4.5557%
- USD higher across the board, notably rising above 97.70 on the yen and 0.9120 on CHF; EUR and GBP down 30pips against the greenback around 1.3490 and 1.5920 respectively; AUD and NZD seeing most pronounced damage against the greenback - AUD/USD spiked above 0.9470 after unemployment rate drop but since declined to 0.94 handle; NZD/USD down 60pips below 0.8250, a 1-week low.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China Bank of Communications (BoCom) chief economist Lian: China banks' non-performing loan (NPL) ratio may rise to 1.5% v 1.0% in June; Sees bad loan to rise in next 2-3 quarters - (CN) China Premier Li Keqiang: China is paying attention to US debt issue - Xinhua - (CN) IMF's Zhu: High debt levels in China is of concern; recent slowdown is positive as it will serve to rebalance the economy - (HK) Hong Kong Fin Min Tsang: Sees no need to change the HKD peg to USD, remains the most logical arrangement
- (NZ) RBNZ research sees 1-4% cut in housing price growth due to LVR next year - (EU) ECB Pres Draghi: Govts must ensure sovereign debt stays risk free - press conf - (US) House minority leader Pelosi: Have not heard short-term offer discussed - press conf - (US) PIMCO's Gross said to have maintained treasury holdings steady in Sept as bond market rebounds - (US) US Labor Dept announces economic data reports will not be issued as scheduled; release of CPI, PPI, Import data that had been scheduled for the next few days have been postponed due to govt shutdown - financial press
- IDC: Worldwide Q3 PC shipments totaled 81.6M units; -7.6% y/y v -9.5%e - Gartner reports worldwide PC shipment fell 8.6% in Q3; The 'Back-to-School' sales quarter experienced its lowest PC volume since 2008
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +0.8%, S&P/ASX -0.3%, Kospi -0.1%, Shanghai Composite -0.9%, Hang Seng -0.9%, Dec S&P500 +0.4% at 1,654, Dec gold -0.2% at $1,304, Nov crude oil +0.1% at $101.67/brl
US markets: - CTXS: Reports prelim Q3 $0.68-0.69 v $0.73e ($0.72-0.73 prior), Rev $710-712M v $737Me ($730-740M prior); -13.1% afterhours - BBRY: Said to be more open to breakup of the company; Fairfax Financial may be unable to come up with funding or partners for full $4.7B buyout; -1.6% afterhours - CVX: Issues interim Q3 update: Q3 earnings to be lower than Q2 (implies Q3 EPS <$2.77 v $3.10e); -0.8% afterhours - HES: Agrees to sell its US East Coast and St. Lucia terminal network for $850M to Buckeye Partners; -0.4% afterhours - NKE: Forecasts FY15 Rev $30B v $29.8Be (top prior $28-30B range), sees FY17 Rev at $36B; reaffirms long-term model of high single-digit rev growth, mid-teens EPS; +0.4% afterhours - GILD: To Stop Phase 3 Study 116 of Idelalisib in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Early Because of Positive Risk-Benefit; +3.0% afterhours - CHTP: FDA to review NORTHERA (droxidopa); panel date set for Jan 14th; +9.0% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer discretionary: Yunnan Tin Co Ltd 000960.CN -2.2% (Chairman arrested) - Industrials: China Shipbuilding Industry Co Ltd 601989.CN flat (Sept results); JFE Holdings 5411.JP +0.8% (plans to update facilties; FY13 production guidance) Nissan Motor Co Ltd 7201.JP +2.4%, Honda Motor Co Ltd 7267.JP +1.6%, Mazda Motor Corp 7261.JP +2.9%, Toyota Motor Corp 7203.JP +1.1% (Japan autos higher on weaker yen) - Energy: China Petrochemical Sinopec 386.HK -1.9% (bond issuance) - Materials: Newcrest Mining Ltd NCM.AU -2.8% (CEO may consider asset sale); Energy Resources of Australia ERA.AU -3.7% (Q3 results) - Technology: China Spacesat Co Ltd 600118.CN +1.3%, Anhui Sun-Create Electronics Co Ltd 600990.CN +2.1% (continues to rise on yesterday's Govt plan) - Financials: Bank of Queensland BOQ.AU +6.9% (FY results); Shimao Property 813.HK +1.3% (Sept results) - Healthcare: Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co Ltd 600276.CN -3.6% (Eli Lily theft report); Beijing Tiantan Biological Products 600161.CN +1.2% (WHO adds China vaccine)