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Please find attached our pre-IPO reference note on Anthropic, updated for the amended S-1 filed yesterday (2 November).

VERDICT: AVOID at a $1.5-2.0T print. Exceptional franchise, wrong terms.
- Fair value $1.05-1.3T, i.e. $62-77 per fully diluted share
- Talk of $1.5-2.0T implies $89-118 per share
- GA7 thresholds pass only below ~$820bn, under the May Series H mark

WHAT THE S-1/A SHOWED (2 Nov):
- Q3 revenue $16.96bn, +47% q/q (Q2: +144%)
- GAAP operating loss $567m after +$974m in Q2: the only profitable quarter lasted one quarter
- $5.0bn of costlier short-term compute + $2.0bn donation charge
- Adjusted operating margin 14.5% vs 19.3% in Q2
- Revenue per compute dollar $1.71 vs $2.08 in Q2
- Total commitments $895.4bn (~6.8x cash), ~$70bn due within 12 months
- Price cuts cost ~$600m of Q3 revenue
- Price range and share count still blank

KEY POINTS IN THE NOTE:
- Circular deals map: Amazon, Google, Broadcom, Microsoft, Nvidia, AMD and SpaceXAI are investors, lenders and suppliers at once
- Two convertibles: Amazon notes ($6.2bn principal, $108.6bn fair value) and an undrawn $42bn Broadcom facility
- Microsoft and Meta cutting internal Claude use; top 5 customers ~21%
- DoW dispute: D.C. Circuit upheld the supply-chain designation (25 Sep)
- Governance: founders hold 50.1% of votes; Class A elects no directors

INDEX AND TIMING:
- Roadshow no earlier than 10 Nov; pricing reported week of 16 Nov
- CRSP/Russell ~5 trading days after listing, MSCI ~10, Nasdaq-100 ~15
- We estimate $25-35bn of index-driven demand vs a $100bn+ deal
- Nasdaq-100 entry could fall on 9 Dec, the same day as the FOMC
- Supply: Meta up to $98bn equity programme; 23 lock-up releases in year one; ~180-day window mid-May 2027

[ATTACHMENT: Anthropic_PreIPO_Graham_EN_3Nov2026.pdf]

Laurent Chekroun
+41 79 350 71 09

This communication does not constitute investment advice.

Restricted distribution: professional counterparties only.

I have a french version if interested

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