TheChek News Flow

The final leg of the take-private move with regard to Abertis is likely to be approved by the Spanish government despite the regulatory problems of incoming shareholder Atlantia [BIT:ATL], according to a source briefed on the situation, an infrastructure consultant and a person familiar with it.

The Italian company is entering a consortium formed by bidders ACS [BME:ACS] and Hochtief[FRA:HOT], which delisted the Spanish infrastructure company at the beginning of last month. Shortly afterward, a bridge managed by Atlantia in Genoa collapsed, leading to the loss of 38 lives.

The Italian government has launched an investigation of the accident. The news media speculated that demand for compensation could threaten Atlantia’s entry into the consortium, or that the Spanish government could block the deal.

However, there would be no precedent for the Spanish government to intervene. The Socialist Party has an extreme minority government, which gives it little room to maneuver, the consultant said, adding that there have been no leaks in Spain to prepare the ground for a block.

The government is unlikely to block Atlantia’s move into Abertis’ capital, agreed the source and the person. The Atlantia management is focused on handling the aftermath of the accident, which means that the final leg of the deal might take longer to execute than previously thought, the person said.

There is a huge amount of paperwork involved in the deal, said a source, who is familiar with the situation. The aim is to get the deal closed as soon as possible, the source said, adding it should certainly be done by Christmas.

The deal has to be approved by the Spanish Council of Ministers. The key departments will be Economy, Industry and Defence, the consultant said, adding the change of control at Hispasat – a strategically important satellites company owned by Abertis – has already been agreed.

Though Spanish politics should be unproblematic, the possibility of asset seizures and concession cancellations in Italy creates an atmosphere of uncertainty, said the source briefed. Atlantia’s banks have said they will keep the financing in place, but skepticism would be wise, the source said. The banks remain supportive in general terms, but they might make Atlantia’s debt a little more expensive, said the person.

Meanwhile, the deal should go ahead as planned despite the accident, said the source familiar, as well as a third source and a second person familiar. Those involved in the deal are unworried, agreed a fourth source.

Though there has been a lot of hot air in the Italian news media, the strategy for executing the end-game of the deal remains the same as it has always been, said the source who is familiar with the situation.

Hochtief and its parent company ACS agreed to end a bidding war for Abertis in March. Under terms of the agreement, Atlantia withdrew its own offer, while Hochtief made a modified offer valued at around EUR 18bn. The Italian company agreed to join the consortium at the same time.

Abertis, ACS and Hochtief declined to comment. Atlantia and the Spanish government did not respond to requests for comment.